Breaking down the Dublin Festival, and a bet in a handicap chase at the festival.

After the brilliant action from Trials weekend, where the picture of the festival became ever so slightly clearer. This weekend saw the Dublin Racing Festival and somehow the waters became even murkier again. I'll concentrate mainly on the Graded action from the weekend and save going over the handicaps for nearer the festival when we have a clearer picture of fields and final marks.

Saturday's racing started with the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Hurdle, a Grade One race for novices over 2 miles and 6 furlongs. Since it was moved to the Dublin Racing Festival and elevated to Grade One status, this race has never been won by a horse who also won at the Cheltenham Festival in the same year. However, it's time it has produced a number of horses who have gone on to place, most often in the Albert Bartlett, but also in the Ballymore. The distance of the race is awkward as it is between the Baring Bingham (Old Ballymore) distance of 2 miles and 5 furlongs and the Albert Bartlett distance of 3 miles. After the race, winning trainer Willie Mullins earmarked the winner Dancing City as a horse for the Albert Bartlett. He won in the style of one who would get the 3 mile trip well having stayed on best to win by just over a length from the favourite Predators Gold, who Mullins suggested may be better suited if he dropped back slightly in trip for the Baring Bingham. Dancing City would have a fair shot at the Bartlett, but personally I wouldn't rush to back him at the moment. A lot was expected of Predators Gold and at one point he looked like the winner, but maybe a little keen cost him his chance.

Finishing a further length behind in third was the above average mare Jetara, who has been a revelation since being stepped up in trip. Although she was entered in the Mares' novice and entered in over 2 miles and 1 furlong, she is also entered for the Mares Hurdle over 2 miles and 4 furlongs and would be better off there, especially as she has already won a Grade Three against the non novice mares' at this distance over Christmas. It is worth noting that she was beaten 45 lengths by Brighterdaysahead, the Mares' Novice market principle, albeit over a shorter distance of 2 miles and 1 furlong. Jetara is potentially a mare for the Grade One Mares Novice at the Irish National meeting over 2 and a half miles. Although she was pulled up in that race last year, she is a very different horse this season and I wouldn't be surprised if her trainer Jessica Harrington keeps her fresh for that race.

I expected more from the fourth-placed horse, Stellar Story, and was disappointed that he didn't stay on better near the finish. I had seen him as a lively outsider for the Albert Bartlett before the race but wouldn't be interested in him now. I Will Be Baie didn't seem up to the higher grade and Loughlynn wasn't right on the day, his jumping was never quite as fluent as it had been the last day.

The next race was almost a carbon copy of the first. Mullins had the first and second with Danny Mullins beating Paul Townend who was on the favourite. Danny having ridden Dancing City in the previous race, and Paul Townend on beaten favourite Predators Gold. As was the case across the whole Festival, Mullins dominated this race, with the 1-2-3-4. As an ardent watcher of French juvenile races, I wasn't surprised that Kargese won, as I thought she was an extremely classy horse. Majborough, who finished third on his stable debut here, was one I also watched with anticipation, competing in a Grade One race on his first run for Mullins.

The favourite Storm Heart had won a maiden for Mullins, but the graded form and extra jumping experience gained by Kargese made the difference for me, there could be more to come from both Majborough and Storm Heart as it was only both of their second career starts. Majborough could definitely be a contender to keep an eye on in the Aintree Juvenile race in April.

Kargese herself was eye-catching when only second in the Christmas Grade Two at a 3lb penalty for her French Grade Three win. She was much less keen on Saturday and won really won nicely, pulling over a length clear, having travelled into the race looking like the best horse. The horse that had beaten her in the Grade Two back in December, Kala Conti, finished fifth on the day, beaten two and a half lengths by the winner in a bunch finish for second. Bunting, a staying on fourth, was never really involved in the race and could be one to keep onside in handicap company. Similar applies to Ethical Diamond in 6th who showed promise in staying on well to be beaten 5 lengths. Nothing else in the race stood out in truth, despite optimism surrounding Highwind and Intelotto, I wasn't impressed with either. Highwind certainly needs to brush up on his jumping going forwards.

With regards to the festival, did we learn anything for the Triumph? We've seen what Mullins battalion of juveniles can do, and Kargese looks a very good mare, but is she as good as Lossiemouth was for Mullins last year? I'm not so sure. If she is top of Mullins juvenile horses, then I think the bookies are right to have cut Sir Gino following the race. Sir Gino would have to be very good to give her 7lbs, but I think he is every bit good enough to do so.

If the last race made the Triumph picture slightly clearer, the next race, the Irish Arkle was absolutely the polar opposite. Hot favourite for both this race, and the Arkle itself Marine Nationale, was well beaten and never looked comfortable turning in. Eventually fading into fifth. Il Etait Temps won the race and has now won Grade One races at the last two Dublin Racing Festivals and placed in another Grade One at the festival as a juvenile, but has never shown that sort of form at Cheltenham. Not one you could back with major confidence in March. Found A Fifty was only headed close home by Il Etaits Temps, and having won the Grade One Racing Post Novice Chase back in December, would arguably be overpriced at 7/1 for the festival, particularly if they employ similarly aggressive tactics over a furlong and a half shorter. Facile Vega again didn't jump well enough or look suited to the trip and would need a real turn around in order to challenge in an Arkle, I wouldn't be interested in him for the Turners either based on his current form.

Galopin Des Champs won the Irish Gold Cup in the feature race on day one, and though Fastorslow gave him somewhat of a race, it was a pretty comfortable 4 and a half lengths win in the end that could have been further. Fastorslow is unexposed at staying trips, but I didn't see enough to convince me that an extra 2 furlongs would be enough to reverse the form. Galopin saw it out really nicely when winning last years Gold Cup and will be heavy favourite to retain his crown. Conflated fell when looking set for third, and stamina doubts would turn me against him in the cross country, with no Allaho I would prefer to see him in the Ryanair, which I believe connections all but confirmed today. I Am Maximus continues to be below the Grade One level, and we might see better of him in the Grand National, back in handicap company.

Though I'm not going to delve into the handicaps too much here, I thought Madara was very impressive in winning the 2 mile 1 listed handicap, and with his win at Cheltenham on previous start, could be one for the Grand Annual if the handicapper isn't too harsh, his current mark of 133 would hopefully allow him to run off a mark still below 140 which I don't think would be an issue. He's only just turned 5 and I think is improving all the time.

The final race on the Saturday was the Grade 2 bumper, the winner of which has gone on to

finish either 1st or 2nd in the Champion Bumper in each of the last five renewals. The impressive winner on the day was Jereboam Machin for Emmet Mullins and owner, for the time being anyway, Paul Byrnes. Having beaten the highly regarded DB Cooper on bumper debut, he took his form to whole new heights to win in taking fashion powering 4 lengths clear and taking himself to the top of the betting as worthy favourite of the Champion Bumper at what is still a more than fair price. Last years' Champion Bumper winner A Dream To Share could only manage 5th on the day and really the only other horse I wanted to mention was The Yellow Clay for Gordon Elliott and Bective Stud. A young horse, having only just turned 5. He had stepped up from his debut bumper win in March last year, to win a listed bumper for four year olds on his second start less than three weeks later. I was expecting him to go over hurdles this year, but perhaps as he is still only young they decided to hold back a year. After just under a year off track, he looked to be swallowed up and was right out the back of the pack turning in, but stayed on really well down the outside to take fourth place. He would certainly be interesting for novice hurdles next season, and I think Gordon may run him in a maiden at the Down Royal meeting in early November as a starting point.

The Sunday's racing kicked off with a mares handicap hurdle which has often been a decent festival pointer in the past, but I wasn't particularly taken by the prospects of any coming out of the race, for all that the winner won nicely. She perhaps wouldn't have a mark high enough to get in to any of the festival handicaps, and would need to improve a lot to trouble in graded company.

The big talking race for the day followed in the Grade One Ladbrokes Novice Chase over around 2 miles 5 furlongs, but unfortunately we ended up with just 2 runners instead of the 5 that were declared. That being said, we still got a fascinating race between the Turners favourite Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File who went straight over fences having been 2nd in the Champion Bumper last year, and who himself was at the head of the market for the Brown Advisory. Gaelic Warrior went off odds on and was very disappointing, even before unseating at the last when a long way back. For me I thought Mark Walsh did brilliantly in his winning ride on Fact To File. Going back a few years to the Mares' Chase a the festival where Colreevy beat Elimay, I was on Elimay that day and was flabbergasted at the insistence of Walsh to sit on the outside of the right-jumping Colreevy. At every fence she went across Elimay, which cost her numerous lengths and ultimately lost her the race.

Yesterday however, with Gaelic Warrior jumping right consistently, Fact To File was just behind that horse and was noticeably following Gaelic Warrior to the right at each fence. In Walsh taking up the running and going down the inside, Fact To File began to get into more of a rhythm of his own and jumped much straighter. With Gaelic Warrior again showing his right handed preference, you couldn't be overly confident in him winning at the festival having been beaten there twice now. Fact To File would surely have to play a part in either the Turners or Brown Advisory, which ever he was to run in and Mullins decision to go chasing straight away, looks to have paid off.

The 2 mile Grade One novice hurdle came next. Won really well by the favourite Ballyburn who was always prominent and used his stamina to great effect, powering clear to win by 7 lengths in a good time. I've disregarded him as a two miler all season, and I still think his best will come over further, but with it looking an open Supreme, he will surely go there now and most likely go off favourite. I do think he lacks a turn of foot, but a fastly run Supreme could suit him. Slade Steel in second ran a cracking race, and as he is already a Grade Two winner over the intermediate trip, looks set to go to the Baring Bingham and would be more at home in that sort of race, definitely one to keep on side. Nothing else really came into it, bar the 3rd King Of Kingsfield who will most likely drop into handicap company and run in either the County or Martin Pipe now, but off quite a high mark.

As expected in the Grade One Dublin Chase over 2 miles 1 furlong, El Fabiolo cemented himself as the Champion Chase favourite, winning as easy as you like by 8 lengths from the Mares' Chase favourite Dinoblue, despite not always jumping brilliantly. If he gets a clear round, I can't see anything getting near him at Cheltenham. Dinoblue couldn't get near him yesterday, but in finishing well clear of last year's Champion Chase second Captain Guinness and the winner of this race last year Gentlemen De Mee, I think she showed why she should be in the Champion Chase herself, though I do think that is unlikely now. I still have lingering doubts as to her stamina for the extra half mile, but it would be against a lower calibre of opposition and she has the class to win a Mares' Chase no doubt. Saint Roi ran another race with his handicap mark in mind, possibly with one eye on the Grand Annual where he would have to have a chance on his best form.

The final Grade One of the weekend was next in the Irish Champion Hurdle. We saw State Man firmly confirm himself as the best hurdler around that's not named Constitution Hill. Unlucky to exist at a time when there is a real freak like Constitution Hill around, at least we see him run regularly. Since last years Champion Hurdle, he has actually won the same number of 2 mile Grade Ones in open company (four of them) as Constitution Hill has won in his entire career. Bob Olinger was a fair second at a trip short of his optimum, and has since been confirmed to go to the Aintree Hurdle next and skip the festival, if Constitution Hill were to turn up there again he may end up playing for second again. Impair Et Passe continues to waste the year finishing third here, when he should have gone chasing. Echoes in rain picked up some 4th place prize money whilst never being involved.

The final race was the Grade Two Mares' bumper which saw the well related Aurora Vega disappoint slightly in 4th. Fleur Au Fusil, the winner, had kicked clear from them and could be one for the Aintree Mares' bumper. Switch From Diesel who was best of the rest in second, looked a nice horse and was a slight form boost for Jalon Doudaries who she was 3rd behind on her previous start.

In terms of bets for the festival I will have an each way bet on Firm Footings in the Plate for Gordon Elliott and a new owner, he is 16/1 and I will play him each way.

Despite not winning at the trip, his best form came over the intermediate distance last year finishing 6th not beaten far in the Martin Pipe. This season he had two early season hurdle starts, winning a conditions hurdle in October, before running 5th in a big field handicap hurdle race over 2 miles and 4 furlongs. Perhaps slightly disappointing not to go closer having been just 5/1 for that race. In hindsight however, it was a race that produced two DRF winners and a couple of others too. The second that day was Goath Chuil, who won a big Pertemps qualifier at the Leopardstown December meeting, and was a very strong second in the 3 mile handicap hurdle on Saturday. The 3rd, Lord Erskine won the listed Tara handicap hurdle in December and caused a 40/1 shock in winning another listed handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival yesterday. Common Practice finished 9th, some way behing Firm Footings and he won a big listed handicap himself in early December. Firm Footings had 3 chase starts in just over a month, between mid December and mid January. Firstly finishing a head second to the potentially high class Grade Three winner Spillane's Tower. His second start was a staying on 8 lengths second to Marine Nationale, some way clear of the 3rd. Before finally finishing 3rd to Arkle market principle Hunters Yarn, not given too much of a hard time after making a mistake at the last. The second was Path D'Oroux who franked the form by finishing 2 lengths second to Madara in the handicap chase on Saturday. He is due for sale today along with all of the Caldwell Construction horses and it will be interesting to see where he goes. He is well handicapped off an Irish mark of 140 and will probably be around 145 for the Plate. He has entries in the Turners, Brown Advisory and the National Hunt Chase (which he isn't qualified for) and the fact the Arkle was never in the plans I think highlights his need to be stepped back up in trip. This would be half a point each way.