Cheltenham Festival Review

Now that the dust has settled somewhat, I have looked back over the festival and have a few thoughts on some of the races.

Supreme

Is Slade Steel just best of the rest behind Ballyburn when it comes to novice hurdlers? Or are the two milers just that poor that a middle distance horse was able to win ahead of them? Possibly a little of both, it doesn't seem a vintage crop of 2 milers certainly, but possibly the heavy ground brought stamina to the fore and that suited the proven stayer best of all. Take nothing away from Slade Steel though, he is a brilliant horse, and would have been a clear second in the Gallagher, and for me, probably would have got closer to Ballyburn then he did at the DRF. He could be even better next year over fences. Tullyhill disappointed and needs to settle better, maybe fences will see him in better light next year. Mystical Power ran his race and is clearly an above average horse, but just not one I've personally been able to take to. Firefox can be upgraded slightly and ran about to his level, doing well to hold 3rd. Asian Master ran a great race under an inexperienced jockey, and was bred for fences and further so could be a dark one to follow next season. Mistergif did well for an inexperienced horse, and is now arguably well handicapped, something like the Galway hurdle could suit him before going chasing next year hopefully, he jumps a hurdle nicely and if as slick over fences could take higher rank amongst the novice chasers. Supersundae could do better over longer trips next year, he's still a novice and was only beaten 10 lengths in the Supreme. A half-brother to Supasundae who was high class at all trips, he is also a half-sibling to Night and Day for Mullins who’s best result on track was winning over 2miles4. Jeriko Du Reponet is one I will be keeping on side, his Supreme run can be ignored with the Henderson stable form, his price of 33/1 for the Arkle is too big and I think could shorten significantly if he wins a few chases at the start of next season. His prior form is working out well having beaten subsequent graded winners.

Arkle

Gaelic Warrior finally put it all together at the festival and demolished them. Nothing in behind really caught my eye. Firefox did well enough to finish second and reversed form with Il Etait Temps, who jumped poorly and ran on well enough, maybe could do better back up in trip, but probably not Ryanair quality and has now had 3 successive below par festival performances. Master Chewy was running a really good race when coming down, and could be aimed at something like the Desert Orchid now that is a handicap, or the Haldon Gold cup at Exeter off a mark of 150. Hunters Yarn looked to lack experience and threatens to be a little disappointing. My Mate Mozzie should have gone for the Grand Annual. Quilixios blew up and lost all chance when missing the break. Not a race I took particularly took anything out of bar the winner

Ultima

A very impressive winner on the day, no thoughts on any stepping up to be Gold Cup class next year or anything like that. But a ludicrously early contender for next year, for this years' winning trainer, who seems to target the race. Heros De Romay- a half brother to Espoir De Romay who recorded an RPR of 167 when falling and looking the winner in the Grade One, Aintree Bowl. This horse was 1st and 2nd in his two bumpers, despite showing greenness having not ran in point to points. He just got up in time when winning his maiden hurdle, over just shy of 2 miles 4. The 2nd is a fair yard stick having finished in the top 2 in 4 of his 5 starts (falling in the other) and achieving a high mark of 122. HDR then faded into 3rd behind a 129 rated horse before again finishing 3rd behind Cuthbert Dibble (3rd in the Pertemps) and Supremely West . He's shaped as though in need of a step up and his mark of 122 is low enough that he probably wins a couple of novice handicap chases at the start of the season before being aimed at something like this, if good enough.

Champion Hurdle

Either Luccia being only 3 lengths off when her stable was in poor form isn’t exactly the most convincing form, or she's run a career best. I think both are partially true and State Man as ever just did what he needed too without blowing them away. Irish Point ran a career best at the trip, and I think next year they should go chasing with his as they have Teahupoo in the Stayers and his ideal middle distance hurdle races are fairly few and far between. I would be incredibly interested in him for the Turners as the trip would be right up his street. I hope Constitution Hill is back next year, along with either Lossiemouth or Ballyburn, as it desperately lacked depth this year.

Mares Hurdle

Lossiemouth showed her class and should probably have taken in the Champion Hurdle instead, though with State Man supposedly not taking to fences and if Constitution Hill is back and you can take Mullins comments on Ballyburn with any more than a grain of salt. I wouldn't be surprised if she could end up back here again next year. Telmesomethinggirl running so well upset me as I was on her when brought down a couple of years ago when travelling strongly. She'll be 10 next year however and may have missed her chance to win this race. In 3rd and 4th were two stablemates to Telmesomethinggirl. Hispanic Moon was always prominent and stuck on well to hold 3rd, she could go to the mares chase next year already being a graded winner over Fences when trained in France. Having been held up and travelling into it Lantry Lady also ran a brilliant race on just her third career start at 40/1. With some more experience and if Lossiemouth does go to the Champion Hurdle and Telmesomethinggirl another year older, I like this one as a potential for the race next season at 33/1.

Boodles

Throw the race form in the bin, no thoughts coming out of it for next season. Plot jobs left, right and centre. Ndaawi giving about a stone to the 1st and 2nd not beaten all that far is good, for a consistent type, but it's hard to imagine him coming on enough to be grade one level.

National Hunt Chase

I think only 1 horse really ran to their best, Corbetts Cross. Though he was impressive visually, the 2nd Embassy Gardens didn't jump well enough and blew all chances at the second last and supposedly had heart issues after the race. Mr Vango is a dour stayer and was a creditable 3rd and just below the level of these, but none of the others were ever involved and didn't run to the levels they had previously show. Apple Away didn't stay the trip to my eye and should probably have ran in the Ultima. Having been a previous Aintree winner, she could be one to keep in mind there.

Gallagher

Not much else to say about Ballyburn, he's A brilliant horse and will be likely favourite for wherever he turns up next year. But it is hard to put your finger on what race that will be at this point. Jimmy Du Seuil ran a career best to finish 2nd. Ile Atlantique has disappointed again despite finishing 3rd. There always seems to be support for him and excuses thereafter, but I wouldn't be rushing to back him again. He seems to me to be one of those horses, that always has an excuse and is becoming a bit frustrating. The other Mullins horses, as well as Handstands and Jingko Blue were all below their peak form but I don't think that mattered anyway.

Brown Advisory

Fact To File was very impressive and could lay down a real challenge to Galopin Des Champs and the rest in the open staying division next year. Monty’s Star has got lots more to come and with experience could be well suited by a Gold Cup as well, I think he is top class and probably overpriced for that at 33/1. Don’t underestimate Stay Away Fay going forward, he scoped dirty post race and didn’t give his true running. He is a better horse than the 3rd Giovinco who did well but would have surely gone close in the Ulitma of his handicap mark. Sandor Clegane, back in 4th is a second season novice now, not sure whether it's a race the trainer aims towards but could he go to the National Hunt Chase next season?

Coral Cup

Whatever your thoughts on how he was campaigned, it will surely be harder this year for the Skeltons to get Langer Dan back down to a low enough mark to win this again. Ballyadam was admirable in second off top weight and would be a popular winner if he was able to land a big one at some point, as he has often threatened to do. I wonder if Shanbally Kid will have another go over fences next season, or whether he will be campaigned around this sort of race. Lucky Place is only 5 and ran a brilliant race, especially for a Henderson runner. He is related to winners over fences so could be one to follow next season if they go down that route. He was previously second to Mares' Novice winner Golden Ace and has run very credibly all season.

Champion Chase

On paper this looks a sub standard renewal of this race. No Jonbon and El Fabiolo pulling up ensured that. Captain Guinness finally won his grade one, and held off the challenge of Gentlemen De Mee who nearly won JP McManus his first Champion Chase. Dinoblue not going for this race looks an error in hindsight, having well beaten the first and second already this year. Especially as she was beaten in the Mares Chase upped in trip. I think Edwardstone was beaten when falling and can't see him winning the race next year. El Fabiolo will be back next year along with Energumene potentially and Gaelic Warrior could end up here too. If they all turn up it could be a really exciting race.

Grand Annual

Another Skelton plot landed. Not much else really sticks out to me.

Bumper

Jasmin De Vaux was ridden to perfection and looked classy in winning. Romeo Coolio hit the front too soon and battled well to finish a very good second, despite the huge drift before hand. Stablemate Jalon D'oudaries was fairly prominent, and fared best of those that did so, those towards the front tended to fade out of it, so maybe he can be upgraded slightly. Sounds Victorius is related to stayers and stayed on well to finish 4th. Could be one for the Bartlett having been beaten a head on bumper debut staying on well but not getting there, before a similar run next time, only just getting there on the line. Fishery Lane was a similar story to Sounds Victorius, stayed on but failed on debut, then straight to champion bumper when a staying on 5th. Out of a half sister to a French Grade One second, over 3 miles 3.5 recording an RPR of 155. The Yellow Clay is still a young horse and was also prominent before weakening away, but ranks as one who could be a fair novice hurdler next season.

Turners

The first and second Grey Dawning and Ginny's Destiny both performed well and behind them nothing else really ran with much credit. Ginny's Destiny ran his usual solid race and will surely follow a similar path to Stage Star this year, taking in the November Gold Cup, and then aimed towards the Ryanair which could suit him down to the ground. Grey Dawning is thought of by Dan Skelton as a potential Gold Cup horse, I don't see that personally, as it looks set to be a hot renewal, but it wouldn't be the first time I got a Skelton horse wrong.

Pertemps

This race actually has an almost identical record in producing Brown Advisory horses as the Albert Bartlett does. Winner Monmiral is still a novice chaser and got within a couple of lengths of The Real Whacker in a chase a couple of years ago. I'm not sure they'll go down that route as he doesn't appear to be in love with fences, perhaps a campaign aimed at the stayers will be on the agenda. Cuthbert Dibble ran a brilliant race as a 6 year old, he's actually closely related to Le Milos and other graded chasers so could be one to follow in that discipline next year, possibly not quite Brown Advisory quality though. Cleatus Poolaw is another I wouldn't write off going chasing, his point form is good: a second to Bartlett second The Jukebox Man, before winning his own point. It is a very good nod to how good Gordon thinks he is, the fact that even though he was only 2nd, he ran in the Down Royal bumper which Gordon has won with 8 horses in the last 9 years with horses such as American Mike, Sir Gerhard, Easywork, Death Duty. He went straight hurdling following on from that and ran no bad races, chasing home Daddy Long Legs (over an inadequate 2 miles) and Ballyburn over 2 miles 4. After winning his own maiden he ran a good 2nd in his qualifier and then running a fair 9th at the festival. There could be much more to come from him.

Ryanair

The race looks wide open next year, Banbridge needed better ground and if getting that could be seen to better effect, but really did run an awful race regardless. Protektorat will be looking to break all sorts of trends to retain his crown as a 10 year old. Envoi will be 11 and looked possibly past his best. After travelling into the race well, he had nothing left up the hill. Conflated also will be 11 and has failed on his two attempts at the race. Capodanno needs further and ran well to finish 4th. Everything else looked below the level required, even for this sort of race and wouldn't interest me for next years race at this point.

Stayers

Teahupoo looks set to be aimed at this race the next few years and you'd have to think he has an excellent chance to win it back to back. His stablemate and in the same ownership Irish Point could be a danger, but why waste a dart with him when he could go novice chasing, would be my thinking. An admirable run from Flooring Porter in second after an up and down chasing campaign and is only a 9 year old now and could do better with a full season hurdling again, being 10 isn't a real negative in this race. Buddy One ran a cracker to finish 4th, could be one for chasing next year for a shrewd trainer.

Plate

The one I would take from the race is Life In The Park for Henry De Bromhead who ran a very good 4th, plugging on well and not being beaten too far. He was a little outpaced and perhaps the Topham over slightly further could suit well, or even the Galway Plate in the summer.

Mares’ Novice

Bar the Kim Muir, this was the slowest race compared to average time on the day. The crawl didn’t suit Brighterdaysahead who looks in need of further and is possibly the classiest of these. Not Jack Kennedy's finest ride, which could also be said for Paul Townend on Jade De Grugy. She is not to be written off at all as she wouldn't have been suited by the pace either, but was also short of room when Brighterdaysahead jumped across her. The close proximity of Birdie Or Bust, who is a fair mare but not at the level of the two horses she split, highlights just how much Brighterdaysahead didn't run to her true form, she was previously 25 lengths off Brighterdaysahead. Despite this I will take nothing away from the winner, Golden Ace she won really well and outpaced them up the hill. Despite the speed she showed, she had previously beaten Lucky Place over the intermediate trip and he was subsequently pipped in 2nd in a Grade 2 and ran a brilliant 4th despite stable form in the Coral Cup. She will probably be underestimated in the betting for the Mares' Hurdle next season. At 14/1 for her and 20/1 for Jade De Grugy, I will probably play those two throughout the summer in the Mares' Hurdle, hoping that Lossiemouth doesn't run in that race, and instead goes to the Champion Hurdle.

Kim Muir

Inothewayurthinkin won really impressively off top weight, but it's hard to know where he will be aimed at next year. Nothing else really to take out of the race for me barring Angel's Dawn, who fell when going well and could go close in the Irish National or English Nationals at a nice price.

Triumph

Majborough turned the form around with Kargese nicely and came on massively for his first run for Mullins. If you read my blog posts throughout the year, you would have seen he was my second choice for the race outside of Sir Gino. Both the 1st and second could go chasing this year, but is that the Mullins M.O? I think Sir Gino is a class above all of these juveniles and just fear Henderson takes the slow approach with him and doesn't go chasing next year. Salvator Mundi got closer to Sir Gino than any other horse, though hard ridden to do so. and despite it being his first run for Mullins, I think he ran well enough and is still an exciting horse for next season. He is still a novice as it stands. Salver for Gary Moore ran a solid race on his favoured softer ground, he could be a nice one for him, being a half sibling to Grade One winner Saldier. The fancied Storm Heart and Nurburgring were a little disappointing. Bunting was also very well backed and ran an awful race considering.

County

The winner, Absurde, did really well on unsuitable ground, I imagine a flat campaign will follow and would like him in that sphere too. L'eau Du Sud, may go chasing, or could also jog around the back for his next 4 starts before coming back here on a featherweight mark. Pied Piper I would be interested in here again with a couple of runs to get his mark down, having been placed in the past two running's off huge weights. He is another likely to be campaigned on the flat over the summer.

Bartlett

Stellar Story is well related and the extra few furlongs than the Nathaniel Lacy really suited him and looks a proper stayer, is he classy enough for a Brown Advisory? Yet to be seen but there wasn’t much in behind who covered themselves in glory. The Jukebox Man was desperately unlucky and looked home and hosed before getting lonely out in front, possibly could have been hung onto a little longer, but you'd have probably favoured Stellar Story of the two had it become a battle. Spread Boss Ted can be upgrading having done best of those that were held up. The 1st and 2nd were prominent throughout, with the 3rd not too far back either. He ended up finishing just a length off Dancing City. He's out of a half sister to a Celebration Chase winner, and his own siblings include winners over fences. He could be overlooked next year, whether or not he would be good enough for Grade One level I'm not so sure.

Gold Cup

Galopin Des Champs was too classy on the day, despite being pestered by the loose horse. Gerri Colombe battled really well and that was much more like his best. It's a shame that Fastorslow unseated JJ, as for me he was the most interesting contender bar GDC. L’homme Presse didn’t get home, maybe he could be campaigned towards the Ryanair next year, but again will be 10, though with only 15 career runs could still have something in the tank. Corach Rambler should go for the French Gold Cup in May as the extra few furlongs there would really suit him. there's around a month between the Grand National and that. I'm looking forward to what should be a brilliant race next year as long ast hey all turn up with GDC, Gerri Colombe, Fastorslow, Il Est Francais (Hopefully), Fact To File, Grey Dawning and even Monty’s Star as the early hopefuls.

Hunters

Sine Nomine is only an 8 year old, and has got more to come especially with the 7lb Mares allowance, I'd like her a lot if she were to stay down this route, though it appears connections are thinking about a rules campaign after going for the Scottish National next month. It’s On The Line did well to get that close and will be there about next year again. Time Leader was a brave 3rd and didn't quite have the stamina to last home. The Aintree Hunters could be suited to him, and he was an 80/1 5th in that race last year, I doubt he would be so big this year. Fern's Lock threw away any chance with is antics and keenness, he could be another for the shorter trip at Aintree.

Mares’ Chase

Dinoblue’s class got her to with a length, but Limerick Lace is the stronger stayer, especially on heavy ground. If ground came up better next year Dinoblue would clearly have a good chance, but I still maintain she’d have won the Champion Chase this year, having beaten both the 1st and 2nd in that convincingly this year. Limerick Lace is only 7 and could be hard to beat again next year. Marsh Wren in 3rd ran a solid race and could easily mop up all the British Listed chases, like Zambella used to.

Martin Pipe

The first 6 home (especially the first 4), could all be very good horses. Ocastle Des Mottes and What's Up Darling both faded out of it slightly but Ocastle Des Mottes was particularly keen out in front and What's Up Darling has some nice form in the book previously. My Ante Post selection Better Days Ahead won going away at the line, with his previous best form at nearer 3 miles, he could well be a Brown Advisory type horse next year. He's very highly thought of in the yard, and did really well to give 7lbs to the obvious plot job Waterford Whispers, he's another that is likely to go chasing. Quai De Bourbon was always prominent and also ran a great race. Only a 5 year old, he is another that promises more to come next year. Answer To Kayf I really warmed to in the weeks before the race and I was happy with his run, something like the 3 mile handicap hurdle at Punchestown I would really fancy him to run well in, arguably his best run came when a staying on 3rd, just half a length off of the Bartlett winner, Stellar Story.