Double Delight: Mares' Chase each-way pick and Triumph Hurdle hopeful to watch at Cheltenham Festival

The Dublin Racing Festival is fast approaching and we are flying through this National Hunt season, and as of today there are only 7 weeks until the Festival. Personally, I am really getting excited and can not wait. While there are sure to be some market-defining clues over the next two weeks with strong cards at Doncaster, Trials Day at Cheltenham this weekend and the Dublin Racing Festival next weekend, usually littered with Festival winners. I have decided to place a couple of bets, one in the Mares’ Chase and the other coming in the Triumph Hurdle.

Surprisingly, I am taking on Dinoblue because as much as I think she's a good horse, I don’t see any value backing her at current prices. She hasn’t always looked like the strongest stayer at 2 miles, and while she may have a class advantage over her rivals, an extra half mile at Cheltenham with a penalty for her Grade One win last time out could leave her vulnerable. The Leopardstown Grade One race she won at Christmas was poor, as is often the case with that particular race. In fact, since its inception in 1998, only one winner has then won at the Festival in the same season, Moscow Flyer, and even he went onto be beaten at the festival having won this race on another occasion. Given that JP has never won a Champion Chase and we already know that Jonbon has some improvement to find form-wise with El Fabiolo after last year's Arkle, might JP be tempted to send Dinoblue into the Champion Chase instead? Maybe not, but either way there are enough question marks for me to back either side in this race.

The one I’m most interested in, mainly because she's more consistent than the other horse I like, Allegorie De Vassy, is another horse owned by JP McManus, Limerick Lace. At odds of 6/1 you can safely bet each way, as at worst she should hit the frame and then have a run for your money against Dinoblue with the win part. Although Dinoblue has a touch more class, Limerick Lace is a much stronger stayer and one who I think has steadily improved since going chasing. Her most recent win in listed company, was at the same distance as the Mares’ Chase at the Festival, and she easily dispatched the best of the English mares, in the process retiring Zambella, who usually mops up the Listed chases in England. Pink Legend, who had been placed in the last two renewals of the Mares’ Chase, finishing 3rd in 2023 and 2nd in 2022, was beaten 13 lengths behind Limerick Lace. Prior to that, she had finished second to the now 161-rated Coko Beach in a handicap race with a large field. On her reappearance this season, she won by 16 lengths over 2 miles and 2 furlongs, which shows me that she has the speed to be competitive in a race like the Mares’ Chase.

Her form last year as a novice was strong, and after her reappearance (which she can tend to need, having won only 2/5 times seasonal debut) she was never out of the first three. Her best bit of form was when she finished second to Journey With Me by 3 lengths in a Grade 3 race, and after making a few mistakes, I was a little disappointed when she finished third behind Instit and Allegorie De Vassy in a Listed race at the end of the season. Her jumping seems to have improved, and that was her sixth race of last year, so she may have just been slightly over the top, and can certainly be forgiven. I'd play this as 0.5pts each way.

After writing the following in my first Ante Post blog this season:

“For what it's worth, my top performance for the juveniles in France, was Sir Gino, now with Nicky Henderson in Donnelly silks. The small winning margin may not suggest it, but he aboslutely destroyed the now Mullins trained Salvator Mundi. For context it was a young Tanguy Andrieux on board Sir Gino, a jockey looking to win his first race at black type level, in the Listed Prix Wild Monarch. Up against the well backed Cottin/De Giles favourite, Salvator Mundi, Andrieux didn't even draw his whip and just nudged away at Sir Gino even after being headed by the hard ridden Salvator Mundi. With the two pulling a fair way clear of the 3rd, I think both could be very good horses, but make no mistakes, Sir Gino was much the better horse that day and was ridden as though they knew it.”

I have decided to bet on him too before he runs this weekend. I very much enjoyed watching him win well on his stable debut for Nicky Henderson. Despite him brushing the opposition aside readily and looking a class apart from those behind him, the form is arguably working out quite well. The runner-up has won since, one pulled up behind him has since won on the Flat, and there have been a couple of others from the race subsequently placing too. His French win has also been a really strong piece of form: the 3rd has since won by 8 lengths,. The fourth won by 5 lengths next time out and has since finished 2nd and 4th in a listed race and a Grade 2 race respectively. The 5th, 6th, 7th and 9th have all subsequently placed in strong races. Horses who were pulled up in that race have come out and won or placed in races, including at at Grade Three and Listed level. He is a physically imposing horse for a four year old and is sure to improve in the coming years as he fills out his frame. He's only 2/1 for a race against current Triumph favourite Burdett Road who is 7/4 in a Triumph Trial this weekend, showing how highly regarded he is. I think if either of the two win, we’re looking at them shortening to 2/1 or less for the race in March. I think 6/1 is a massive price for one I already liked for the race back in April, and I will play him as a 1point win bet hoping he runs well this weekend.